My thinking on this has been stimulated by David Roodman of the Center for Global Development. David is in the process of writing a book about micro-finance and posed a question about definitions of development.

That reminded me of a piece of work I led for the Gates Foundation on “Exploring ‘development success’: Indicators, stories and contributing factors” and the train of thought that that rather frustrating piece of work – we were too quick to go along with the client’s slightly confused request (such are the delights of consultancy) – stimulated. David’s thought-provoking post and my comment is here, but the thrust my comment was:

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I agree that making explicit one’s conception of development, and assessing interventions with the help of a theory which sets out how one might expect to move towards that conception of development is useful and doesn’t happen as much as it should in international development.

That setting out one’s theory – surely one of the foundations for anything pretending to be social science or anything with aspirations to being part of evidence-informed policy – doesn’t happen as a matter of course is, I would suggest, a large part of the reason why we (folks who work in international development) don’t really know what we’re doing, and are making little progress towards having a better idea. And that, along with a lack of accountability, is a large part of why what we do often doesn’t deliver the results that are hoped for.

I guess what I’m saying is that while your insight shouldn’t be that novel, I’m afraid that it is, and am keen to join forces to push its implications! I might start asking “what’s the theory?” (and “where’s the evidence?” and “who’s accountable?) 100 times per week, including of myself.

That you need to ask “are there other useful definitions of development” should give us all pause for thought, particularly those of us who work/have worked at places such as the Center for Global DEVELOPMENT and the Overseas DEVELOPMENT Institute.***

Since posting that response I’ve been thinking some more about the probability that without a theory of what it is you’re trying to do, it will be very difficult – and perhaps impossible – to make an evidence-based assessment of whether you’re succeeding, or to have effective accountability.

I’ve also remembered that I wrote about this nearly 10 years ago, in a report for the UK Parliament’s International Development Committee where I talked – drawing on analysis by David Booth, Howard White and the National Audit Office – about the  ”the missing middle” in DFID’s Country Strategy Papers which “state clearly DFID’s poverty reduction objectives and DFID’s planned spending, but lack analysis of the causes of poverty and strategies to break into these causal relationships.” Saying that there is a “missing middle” was a polite way of saying “you don’t know what you’re doing”.

Will I still be writing about this in another ten years’ time. Please no.

First, a piece from 24th February examining why Ethiopia still needs large quantities of aid to prevent regular famines. This piece is 8 minutes into the programme and includes an interview with the DFID Minister Gareth Thomas.

Second, a piece from 25th February examining the issue of land-leasing in Ethiopia. This piece is 33 minutes into the programme.

Third, a piece from 26th February examining Ethiopia’s record on human rights and democracy. This piece is 32 minutes into the programme and includes an interview with the Head of DFID Ethiopia, Howard Taylor – my boss’s boss and Berhanu Kebede, the Ethiopian Ambassador to the UK.

First night was a meal at Fasika’s with a bunch of friends – Dagnachew and partner, Mekdes and friends, Mesfin from DFID, Mesfin from way back, Yared, Jillian and partner, and others. First Sunday was a day of lounging by the pool. And then in the week when I was working Amanda went to up to the Entoto hills, had a day on the Embassy compound (swimming and horse-riding!), and a day of exploring the markets with Teddy. Oh, and we met up with Alex - a long-time friend of Amanda’s - as he was passing through Addis.

Then on the Friday we flew up to Lalibela and checked into the Tukul village hotel – with Amanda with her Kate Adie get-up on – before spending the afternoon having a look at the first group of underground churches. I’m not the biggest fan of looking round old buildings, but these were something different. Think Indiana Jones. That’s me. And Lara Croft. That’s Angelina Jolie. And there were some pretty cool – and entrepreneurial – priests. After a beaker of tej, we were well set for an evening of amharic dancing, where I suspect that we were the entertainment.

On Saturday morning we went off to the weekly market and saw stalls laid out selling all sorts of grains and pulses and vegetables, and plastic pots, and clothes, and areas for selling cattle and sheep and goats, and shoes made out of car tyres. And people walking to the market carry huge bags, or with convoys of donkeys, from miles and miles around. All very interesting. And then – with a short delay while we (I) was trapped in a tej house with a ferocious dog blocking my exit, while Amanda laughed at my extreme dog-aversion - we went round the second group of churches, before being picked up to begin our TESFA (Tourism in Ethiopia for Sustainable Alternative Futures) trek.

We drove an hour and a half out of Lalibela, along a very rough road, through a mountainous landscape reminiscent of the grand canyon. The first afternoon was very easy. Just an hour and a half until we arrived at the huts we’d be staying in, although the pace set by the guides and the shaggy donkey was a bit more Ethiopian marathon runner than not very fit English. On arrival we had tea and pancakes and then a few hours to explore the site – and spot baboons and hyrax – before a dinner by firelight and then sleep (although it was freezing cold, especially for me as Amanda had wisely brought a sleeping bag).

Day 2 started with a breakfast of eggs and bread and then a day’s walk along the escarpment with amazing views all day. Lunch stop was for injera and vegetables, where we met a bunch of irish folks heading the other way and were joined by an indian/american woman would be with us for the rest of our trek. Site 2 was down a bit from the top of the escarpment and was more part of a village than site 1. Tea and “pizza” and an explore preceded a dinner of spaghetti, followed by music, dancing and popcorn. Oh, and my offer to buy a beer or two for the guides being mis-interpreted as me paying for everyone’s beer for the whole night! All the locals were suitably grateful. And drunk.

Day 3 saw us trek up and then across a plateau, away from the escarpment to Meket Mariam, perhaps the most stunning of the sites. Amanda was now perking up after a day or so of possible altitude sickness and we had a good evening which included chatting to the local political leader (who had previously been a leader in the Derg – my efforts to understand his/the village’s changing political allegiances came up against a linguistic barrier, which may have been a good thing) who told us that German radio would be the one that he would trust out of the BBC, Voice of America, German and Ethiopian radio. He also said that he had been to Lalibela only 3 times in his life of 50+ years – an illustration of how local the worlds of the people of the rural highlands are. With the donkeys loaded up the next morning, we set off early down into the valley to catch our long and bumpy bus-ride to Bahir Dar - five hours down from the mountains to the lake, along a partially asphalted (courtesy of China) road with some very bleak and dusty towns along the way - after a quick lunch of injera.

Bahir Dar is on the southern shore of Lake Tana, so the main day there – Wednesday – was a day of boat tours and watching the pelicans. The half-day boat tour took us round 5 different monasteries, which were full of very colourful paintings – used, in part for sunday (actually, probably every day) school for people who couldn’t/can’t read. We also went round a museum and were shown shoes with bi-directional hoof marks on them, for getting around un (or confusingly) detected. Must be a market for them amongst philanderers and ne’er do wells. Then we spent a few hours in the afternoon on a floating jetty moored off mango park, eating lentil samosas and watching the pelicans. Oh, and we had a swim in a pool, in preference to going to look at the Blue Nile Falls. A wee bit lazy, but very refreshing. And then more dancing and music.

Thursday morning saw us up early and off in a tuk-tuk to the airport for a 20 minute flight to Gonder and a quick look round the Royal Enclosure before flying back to Addis. Gonder was our least favourite place, probably because the taxi driver there had us over a many-birr-barrel as it was 20km to town and there was no competition. My efforts to pretend to be ringing up for another taxi – to magic up some competition – failed miserably. Still, was good to have a gander at gonder, although by this point Amanda had had enough of old buildings and had taken to playing “spot the amanda” in the photo. I had had enough of Gonder too, but as it had been my idea to go there I was pretending to still be keen.

We got back to Addis on Thursday afternoon, just in time to get ready for dinner at one of the poshest places in Addis – or at least it’s the place that DFID folks from London HQ get taken to. Food was amazing and we had a great time. But what with hindsight was a risky choice of rice led to Amanda’s downfall, which meant that Friday – her last day in Addis – was spent recovering and bracing herself for the flight back to London. We nearly went halves on our main courses, so it was a narrow escape for me too!

Nevertheless, we had a great couple of weeks and a wonderful time in Lalibela, trekking and Bahir Dar. Whether I managed to sell living in Ethiopia – or a different developing country – to Amanda is a different matter. It may need to be somewhere less dusty and with a coast. Sierra Leone? Tanzania? Ghana? Brighton? My money’s on …

With my development hat on – rather than my Ras Tafari lion of Judah baseball hat – the three things that struck me on our adventures were:

1) How local the lives of the rural poor in Ethiopia seem to be, and yet how they are shaped by global forces too – climate change, food prices, migration.

2) How little technology – or at least what I recognise as technology – the people have; wheeled carts were rare and things like plastic buckets seemed to be the cutting edge in some places (although in the trek area they had got mobile reception a month ago, which might lead to interesting changes)

3) How up-beat the people seem to be – as I have always found in Africa – despite the fact that many of them live in conditions that would drive most of us to despair.

PS: More – far too many – pictures can be found on the six tiles starting from the picture of just Amanda on this page

Challenging the borders-up mentality prevalent in many developed countries certainly gets my vote (although the benefits of immigration in the rich world do tend to go to rich people, which complicates matters). And it’s good to question the conventional wisdom that the out-migration of skilled people is always bad for developing countries. But ….

… installing another generalisation – that brain export is good for developing countries – is not a good idea.

Whether migration is good or bad for development (or poverty reduction) depends on how context – in this case the specifics of the place of origin and place of destination – shapes the nature of migration, the costs and benefits it generates, and the distribution of those costs and benefits. Not rocket science is it?

This is what the report on migration and development I did for the UK Parliament several years ago said, a report which – despite being on a hot potato political issue – had the support of a cross-party committee of MPs. (I fondly remember the chair of the committee talking about the report on  TVand sounding more of a global socialist than his conservative constituents would have thought possible!)

My oar is more comprehensively stuck in here

At some point I might rant about economists (OK, some economists …) and their enthusiasm for making context-free generalisations that conform to their models! Or maybe I should set up an Economist-watch web-site to complement the Bill Easterly-watch one.

The questions that the ONE campaign is asking the political parties to respond to (and thus provide a basis for holding them to account …) are:

1. Global leadership
With the UN’s September Summit focusing on extreme poverty and the Millennium Development Goals, there is a historic opportunity for progress. How will you make the most of this opportunity?

2. The UK’s promise
If elected, what would you do to ensure the UK delivers on its commitment to give 0.7% of Gross National Income as development assistance?

3. Climate and development
What would you do to secure a global climate deal that helps people living in poverty and would you ensure that climate funding is additional to current and promised aid flows?

4. Improving aid
UK development assistance is well respected, but are there ways in which you would increase its effectiveness?

5. Security and development
What is your position on using development funding for security operations?

6. Investment in Africa
How would you ensure private sector investment in Africa helps to reduce poverty?

Owen is a fellow (if longer term) resident of Addis and his blog is well worth a read. More vocal on aid and politics than mine is …. than mine is at the moment.

Actually, here’s my response to his blog, just in case he doesn’t get a chance to approve my comment very soon.

As someone who thinks in principle that debate about parties’ policies is an important part of effective democratic/ accountable/ legitimate governance, I’ve been itching to respond to this interesting and thought-provoking post. I think there’s a lot to be said about the relationship between different parties’ positions – which may turn out to be more different than what their Green Papers and manifestos say – and ensuring that UK development cooperation is as effective as possible.

However, my temporary status as a UK civil servant should perhaps restrain me, as does Owen’s analysis that (paraphrased, with apologies) acting as if the presumed development consensus is real is the best way of ensuring that a future government remains committed to sensible (?) policies on poverty reduction – although I am not totally persuaded by that analysis.

[I have been playing around with a matrix of real/unreal commitments or consensus, and best guesses about/probabilities of a future government, to consider whether challenging a party on the truthfulness/reality of its stated position is wise or unwise, but have found myself too busy trying to understand Ethiopian politics and ownership to complete my half-baked analysis!]

What I’d really like to see is a response by Kevin Watkins. In his absence, readers might be interested to have a look at Duncan Green’s recent piece on his dream manifesto for development http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/01/from-poverty-to-power/

Owen, do you think that putting forward a dream manifesto is acceptable or does that – and the judgement that is implicit in that about what a good policy and hence (assuming there are policy differences between parties on the issues in the dream manifesto) party position on international development is – put at risk the supposed cross-party consensus?

How much or what type of discussion of parties’ policies on international development is OK? What if someone’s voting decision were shaped by a party’s likely approach to international development? Wouldn’t that then merit some discussion of the likely/possible differences between parties?

Just some thoughts. Sanitized of my party political views. Almost. And with thanks to Owen and Duncan for interesting posts.

PS: I will be interested to see what my former ODI colleagues – a think tank that prides itself on its political neutrality and basing its advice on “evidence” – might have to say about this sort of thing, particularly with a change of government (and major client) in the offing.

I wandered out mid-morning wondering whether I’d missed the festivities and not planning on going very far. I had heard that Jan Meda – a couple of miles away – was the place to be, with holy water being hosed on the crowd. I quickly acquired a very helpful and friendly guide – Dawit, who is a student in Jimma but was in town for Timkat. He spoke great English and humoured me with my amharic.

We wandered up past Arat Kilo and Siddhist Kilo and nearly made it as far as Jan Meda before the crowds got a bit too much. I’m used to celebrations of Arsenal winning the double and the open top bus tours of north london, but these crowds were something else. There was lots of dancing and music, lots of people dressed in white shawls and cloths. Bullrushes and sticks being waved in the air.

Turning back we took advantage of my relative wealth and escaped to the space of Blue Tops restaurant and the shade, for I had forgotten my hat. After lunch, we zipped past parliament and into the grounds of the palace (where Prime Minister Meles lives). Today was one of only a couple of days per year when Emperor Menelek’s church was open. He was the person who founded Addis about 120 years ago and brought lots of modern things – electricity, running water, cars – here. We went inside, saw the resident Michael Angelo painting, and then went into the vault to see the tombs of menelek, his daughter and wife (zaitu and zewditu I think), and various other old artefacts.

I paid the various priests, being reassured that the hefty fee I was being asked for was for orphans who the church looked after rather than just for the priests, and we just about made it back to near Arat Kilo to see the Ark of the Covenant – I think that’s the thing that the stone tables with 10 commandments on were kept in (this country is really testing my memory of things I used to know!) – process past. The crowds were amazing. Huge. At least half a million I’d say. Very colourful. Full of energy. Lots of priests and sub-priests in purples and greens. And then bright colourful umbrellas/parasols being held by the more senior priests. And then the ark itself – to be honest, I have no idea what it looks like, but maybe it’s a box – being carried by the most senior priests and perhaps the pope of the ethiopian church.

Anyway, despite the fact that I didn’t completely know what was going on, it was quite an experience, and Dawit was an excellent guide. Oh, nearly forgot. Earlier in the day, I had given 10 birr (50p) to a very bedraggled man. He was so pleased he gave me a big hug, span me round and gave me a big kiss, much to the amusement of the people walking past!

Photos and movies are here.

Shimeles picked me up at 8.30 for the drive to Bishoftu. Debre Zeit is the Amharic name, but as the place is in Oromia (a different region of Ethiopia, where the Oromo people tend to live – Ethnic Federalism, ask me another time) it makes more sense to use the name of the place in Oromifa – the local language – Bishoftu.

We drove through Addis, along the ring road, and then picked up what still gets called the Debre Zeit road. This road is the road from Addis to all destinations south (Awassa and Kenya) and east (Harar, Djibouti, Somalia). So, it’s a very busy road, full of lorries bringing construction materials and food aid from Djibouti into Ethiopia. There is a railway track from Addis to Djibouti but it doesn’t work, or at least doesn’t work for much of it; reports are mixed, which is putting me off doing a Paul Theroux.

Close to the road there are quite a lot of factories – building materials, metalworks, a garment factory – and, on and off, settlements with lots of shops and cheap hotels. Shimeles commented that one of them – Dukul I think – is a popular hangout for truckers, with ready supplies of raw meat and other questionable pleasures. We didn’t stop there.

It took us about an hour. We turned off the main road at Bishoftu and went first to the Airforce Officers’ Club at Shimeles recommendation for a drink. We then left the car there, having agreed a payment to circumvent the fact that the rules said we couldn’t, and set off on foot. First we had a look at lake Hora. There is a big new resort planned here – owned by the bloke who owns the Sheraton in Addis and much else in Ethiopia – but progress is slow. There were some lads doing their washing, quite a lot of exotic birds (a purple kingfisher type bird, a yellow weaver bird, a pelican, little red birds) and a couple of boats. The lake was pretty and if I have more time sometime I might walk round the rim of the crater.

We then carried on walking north around the lake and rejoined the secondary road. It was good to walk as it meant I got to see more. Lots of donkeys carrying heavy loads, cows scratching themselves, goats being whipped. Small shops. Smaller houses which the word shacks would flatter. The road was not tarmac so it was very dusty and it was getting hot, but we kept going. I was keen to see another lake. We didn’t quite make it to Bishoftu Guda but we did make it to Kuriftu, where there is a posh hotel on the slopes leading down to the lake. We had a quick look round and I pondered whether DFID might agree to put me up there rather than at the Hilton in Addis!

On the way to Kuriftu resort there was a small hut with a big cross on the top of it and a man collecting money for the church. I gave him some money, but then when I asked whether I could take his photo he brandished a cross almost as big as the one on the hut at me and hid behind his parasol. I took that as a no, having not previously been made to feel like a character from the Omen.

We were going to get a horse-drawn taxi (a gari) back to the car, but it was getting very hot so we bundled into a tuk-tuk. Back at the AirForce Club, we paid the agreed fee and then headed back to Addis, stopping first to have a quick look at what I guess was a goat market. I was glad to have Shimeles driving as there were some pretty risky over-taking manoeuvres being undertaken by some of the other drivers!

More photos here

Wobbly films here